Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 19.182864 23.151896 27.549136 32.756182 38.726746 45.331444 53.161818
2025-03-30 13.045880 18.100559 24.315579 32.403969 42.527033 54.647910 70.115530
2025-04-06 10.380250 16.030570 23.541886 34.003952 47.915834 65.479079 88.988031
2025-04-13 7.372014 12.683343 20.308573 31.638837 47.573014 68.671211 98.123619
2025-04-20 6.026925 11.354115 19.501619 32.249100 50.974004 76.682056 113.712558
2025-04-27 5.070335 10.391385 19.012190 33.132497 54.673328 85.175891 130.285882
2025-05-04 4.365500 9.681268 18.762392 34.262143 58.709337 94.269269 148.060654
2025-05-11 3.717884 8.923070 18.291648 34.929303 62.013042 102.407479 164.799933
2025-05-18 3.057916 7.985241 17.352442 34.678908 63.796426 108.320169 178.516960
2025-05-25 2.419729 6.930052 16.022929 33.575878 64.058005 111.864346 188.808629
2025-06-01 1.985783 6.205872 15.188889 33.213656 65.443054 117.127605 201.821113
2025-06-08 1.542774 5.331188 13.904878 31.857754 64.991358 119.407057 210.289239
2025-06-15 1.351149 5.078003 13.945803 33.159530 69.516370 130.344171 233.439333
2025-06-22 1.064104 4.472422 13.129008 32.719199 70.967261 136.448822 249.454179
2025-06-29 0.947034 4.325579 13.323270 34.326117 76.242704 149.159819 276.571139
2025-07-06 0.658778 3.497193 11.713962 31.942549 73.839949 148.692554 282.204288
2025-07-13 0.552975 3.252785 11.512199 32.557489 77.186065 158.263071 304.739291
2025-07-20 0.473525 3.071983 11.441124 33.447652 81.118490 169.028580 329.666827
2025-07-27 0.412928 2.940234 11.478870 34.585900 85.612067 180.980192 357.021419
2025-08-03 0.348900 2.757163 11.330121 35.258115 89.187592 191.417488 382.140791
2025-08-10 0.275645 2.478485 10.829677 35.005825 90.809179 198.336200 401.408131
2025-08-17 0.202390 2.134896 10.033111 33.894415 90.502859 201.633532 414.432530
2025-08-24 0.156019 1.906510 9.554112 33.529430 91.758100 207.887674 432.858306